On May 14, 2025, China and the United States simultaneously adjusted their tariff policies in accordance with the consensus reached at the Geneva economic and trade talks. The United States has lifted 91% of the additional tariffs imposed on China and suspended 24% of the tariffs for 90 days. China has reduced its countermeasures tariffs against the United States to 10%. The implementation of this policy has brought a new turning point to the trade relations between China and the United States, while also triggering sharp fluctuations in the global shipping market.

Orders have soared and we are rushing to deliver the goods

After the policy was implemented, Chinese foreign trade enterprises acted promptly and took advantage of the 90-day tariff adjustment window period to concentrate their shipments. Factories in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and other regions worked through the night, and cross-border e-commerce enterprises also lowered the prices of their goods one after another to attract more orders. The daily order volume of some enterprises has soared by more than 5 million yuan, demonstrating the strong vitality of foreign trade enterprises and their acute response to the market.

Capacity adjustment has led to a sharp increase in freight rates

In the face of the surging market demand, shipping giants such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd promptly adjusted their capacity, prioritizing the guarantee of routes to the United States. The freight rate for 40-foot containers on the West Coast of the United States has soared from $2,500 to $6,000, an increase of as much as 140%. The booming level of the shipping market is evident. Some shipping companies even raised their quotations by 500 US dollars per container within a single day.

The volume of container trucks has increased significantly, raising the risk of congestion

The volume of container vehicles at Shenzhen Yantian Port has increased by 20%, and ports in the Yangtze River Delta region are also expected to witness a peak in shipments next week. The Port of Los Angeles is worried about a recurrence of the congestion scene in 2021, and the port and logistics industry is facing huge pressure and challenges. The linkage effect in the global shipping market is significant. The Red Sea crisis and the capacity transfer on the European route have further exacerbated the tight capacity situation on the US route.

Short-term freight rates have risen, but in the long term, attention should be paid to demand and policies

Nomura Securities, Jefferies and other financial institutions pointed out that freight rates may continue to rise by 20% in the short term, but in the long run, it is necessary to pay attention to the uncertainties of terminal demand and policies. The market outlook still has many uncertainties, and all parties need to remain vigilant.

Supply chain reconfiguration and market differentiation

This tariff adjustment not only triggered a "rush to transport" in the shipping market, but also prompted enterprises to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia and Mexico to cope with possible tariff fluctuations in the future. The global supply chain landscape is quietly undergoing changes. Meanwhile, the phenomenon of market differentiation has become increasingly obvious. Large enterprises, relying on their resource advantages, have priority in obtaining shipping space, while small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the risk of profits being squeezed by freight rates, and market competition has further intensified.

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